Ordinarily, I'd take Harvey Kronberg's theories lightly, but this one has given me a considerable amount of "hmmm"s in the last hour, so I thought I'd post about it. Earlier this evening, HK posited the theory that Gov. Perry could appoint State Senator Dan Patrick to KBH's empty US Senate seat (assuming, of course, it becomes vacant).

HK gets into all the positives that come out of such an alliance/arrangement, so I thought I'd post some of the negatives - or rather, the dirty politics of such a scenario.

1 - If you appoint Dan Patrick to the US Senate, you leave SD 7 vacant, with no guarantee of being able to elect a comparable replacement. That's bad juju for conservatives statewide. SD 7 would face a special election to replace Patrick, which presents a huge problem for the area. Bill White, currently going after the KBH place, could turn around and aim at SD 7. You could also see a rehash of Joe Nixon and Peggy Hamric going for it. I'm not as familiar with other faces in that district, but as much as Dan Patrick owns that territory in theory, it's harder to say what the outcome would be in the event no one as conservative or as heavy-hitting as Patrick gets in that race. Conservatives should oppose leaving that seat vulnerable.

2 - Historically, the odds in a special election for an appointed incumbent in a US Senate seat in Texas are extremely bad. It's essentially a kiss of death for someone's political career. Say Patrick is appointed. The special election is a plurality election, and will be a veritable free-for-all (think of the many Republicans getting in the mix now, and the Dems - you're looking at potentially six candidates on top of the incumbent). There's no guarantee it remains Republican at all, and while Patrick's statewide name I.D. would certainly increase with this scenario, it may not be enough to overcome what the other candidates bring into the race.

3 - I assume we all remember Shelley Sekula-Gibbs? Shouldn't that case be taken as a warning here? (not that I'm comparing Sekula-Gibbs and Patrick - God forbid! - but the point is there about incumbency not having quite the punch you'd like in an honest fight)

4 - Now for the dirty pool. Isn't neutralizing Dan Patrick the ideal scenario for David Dewhurst, who is himself a potential Senate candidate? The party is going to be split enough over the Perry/KBH primary. Add in a Patrick/Dewhurst special election, and it's all-out war in the Republican Party.

There are very good reasons for Patrick to be supporting Perry's agenda without contemplating a run for a different office at this point, and certainly Perry can gain momentum with any number of other candidates.

All the more reason that KBH's non-announcement announcement of earlier today chafes me severely. The imminent political wrangling is made all the worse by her appearing to not have her mind fully made up. Until we know if she's resigning or not, a host of decisions from statewides are held in the balance. We don't know what Dewhurst is doing, or Abbott, and meanwhile there are candidates building campaigns that could become moot if nothing happens in time for the primary. I know it's only July, but KBH is certainly acting like a serious gubernatorial candidate. It'd be nice if she would admit it publicly once and for all, and maybe offer more than Capitol scuttlebutt about resigning from the Senate.

Really, I don't see Perry appointing Patrick to the US Senate. There aren't a lot of good, solid, verifiable reasons to make such a move. Perry's smarter than this, and the people helping him make decisions are smarter. The Republican Party is something of a non-factor in the ongoing saga, but I think that even there, the idea of replacing KBH centers on known quantities that don't upset the delicate balance in the Texas Legislature. And, I think Patrick would be foolish to accept such an appointment. He should finish out his term, prove he can win reelection in SD 7 come 2012, and then start looking at his options. This is coming from someone who supported the "Draft Dan Patrick for Governor" effort last year. It's too soon for him, in the end. It won't hurt if he takes the time to build his resume and supporter base.